National City & Chula Vista Multifamily Outlook: Cap Rate Trajectories & Infill Capital
South Bay Resilience in a Higher-for-Longer Environment
While central coastal San Diego submarkets face high insurance inflation and compressed cap rates, South Bay San Diego continues to deliver favorable risk-adjusted yield spreads.
Why South Bay Outperforms
• Dense Workforce Demographic: Naval Base San Diego (32nd Street), NASSCO shipyard, defense logistics, and healthcare employers sustain 97.4% physical occupancy across workforce housing.
• The Chula Vista Bayfront Catalyst: The multi-billion dollar Gaylord Pacific Resort & Convention Center and waterfront development is reshaping south-county economic fundamentals.
• Yield Advantage: South Bay multifamily trades at a 65 to 110 basis point cap rate premium over North Park, Hillcrest, and Pacific Beach, providing positive cash flow on conservative leverage.
Discuss this research with our advisory team
Every property requires a unique financial roadmap. Contact Partner Seddu Eugene Namakajo to review your specific rent roll, 1031 timeline, or property valuation.